YCAB weather

Weekend weather

2010-05-13T20:24:00.000+10:00

This weekends weather is being strongly influenced by a high pressure system centering itself over NSW.
This High will give us, over the next few days;

very little wind,
cool temperatures, especially in the morning,
any lift that may be around will go to 4500' or higher cloud will increase over the weekend with Friday being blue and Sunday afternoon potentially overcast..

There may be some thermal activity from around 11 each day but the lift will be difficult to work . Each day over the weekend will get progressivily better as far as soaring prospects go.
The light winds and smooth skies will make it a perfect weekend for students learning to fly launches, circuits and landings.

Friday Saturday Sunday

Weekend weather

2010-05-06T20:13:00.000+10:00

Once again we have a high pressure system position perfectly to give us the seemingly ever present onshore airflow and possibility of costal showers for the weekend. Fortunatly the wind should stay from the south for most of the weekend with Sunday afternoon having the greatest chance of showers.

Friday.
Blue day light winds from the south. Max 25°
Broken themals to 4000' up to 400'/ min from about 10 am till the sea breeze arrives sometime between 1 and 2 in the afternoon.

Saturday.

The onshore flow will produce plenty of cloud with a base starting off at 2500' and increasing to 3500'. Light winds from the south or south-east. Max 25°. There will be thermal activity under the developing cumulus.

Sea breeze may stay away till as late as 3pm.

Sunday

The high pressure system will produce a more direct onshore flow. A sky full of cumulus with the the onshore flow will most likely produce the odd coastal shower. Where the showers stay away there should be the possibility of weak lift. Cloud base will likely be 300' or less.

Kevin Roden

Watts Bridge

2010-04-29T06:14:00.000+10:00

Forecast for the weekend at Watts Bridge.
The weekend weather is going to be influenced by high pressure system currently sitting onet the Great Australian Bight. As this high moves slowly East over the next few days the winds will generally be from a South East to East direction. Wind speeds of 10 knots or less can be expected for the entire weekend.
Unfortunatly this onshore flow will mean higher humidity lower and lower cloudbases than we might otherwise have enjoyed. Hopefully we will be far enough away from the coast behind Mt Brisbane to stay clear of any coastal showers. The current high level cloud over Queensland's north should continue to move away from us.

Friday
The Friday crew at Caboolture should enjoy a mostly blue day with a few cumulus to the west mostly above 4000' in the afternoon. The forecast top of 26° should produce thermals to 4500'.

Saturday

Saturday could start overcast with a disappointing looking sky but should develop into a reasonable soaring day. 20° should see thermal activity start with cloudbase around 3000'. The forcast top of 25° will produce lift to 4500'. There is potential for scattered showers, these should only be light if they affect us at all.

Sunday.
The temperature needs to climb to 22° fot the thermals to start. Once the forcast top of 26°is reached we should see thermals rise to a cloudbase at approx. 5000'.
Winds around 5 knots from a East to South East direction.

Unfortunatly the high humidity keeps the prospect of over-development and precipitation higher than we would like.

Monday

Once again 22° is needed to start the thermals 26° will equal lift to the 45000' cloudbase
Winds once again the winds will be up to10 knots from a East to South East direction.

Have a good weekend.
Kevin Roden

Weekend weather

2010-04-09T07:37:00.002+10:00

Soaring weather for club days this Sunday and Monday.

An approaching trough will influence soaring conditions on Sunday and Monday. Warm Northerly winds with an unstable atmosphere will produce some good lift for Sunday.....so long as any developing thunderstorms stay clear of Caboolture. Monday will see winds from the South East.

Sunday 11th April. A return to normal club operations.

Max temperature 29°.
Cloudbase 4000' lifting to 5000'
Winds 5 knots from the West swinging to the North East at less than 10 knots after about 1pm.
Good possibility of consistent lift away from any storm cells, before the sea breeze kicks in after 2pm

Monday 12th April. For confused Friday flyers.

Max. temperature 27°.
Cooler southerly winds. 10 knots from the South. High level cloud may shadow our area.
Cumulus cloud-base around 3000'.
Any lift will be scarce and difficult to work as the environmental lapse rate is still relatively warm resisting any instability . Possible coastal showers.

Kevin Roden

Weekend weather

2010-03-25T11:53:00.000+10:00

No gliding weather forecast last weekend due to the cyclone. Every time I checked the forecasts they changed with the cyclone making forecasts difficult. As it turns out the weather was difficult swining from low cloud-base with continuous rain to blue sky and sunshine. This weekend is a little easier.

To coincide with the committee's introduction of 'Every 5th flight for free' the weather gods have given us 3 days of soaring to start things off. This weekend should make up for the past month of less than ideal conditions.

Friday 26th

The forecast high of 28° should see good use-able lift from 10am. Starting off a little weak but quickly increasing in strength before being cut off by the sea-breeze after 2pm. The winds of 10 knots from the SE will ensure plenty of cloud development with a base around 4000'. There will be potential for over-development and a shower or two but these will be short lived or non existent.

Saturday 27th
Once again a forecast high of 28° should see good use-able lift from 10am. The day should be very similar to Friday with cloud-base possibly a little lower around 3500'. Winds will remain from the SE still around 10 knots. The onshore breeze will continue the potential for over-development.

Sunday 28th
Once again the temp. trace shows a large variation from the forecast temperature of 27° to the predicted environmental lapse rate, which suggests another day of good lift. NOAA shows the available potential energy is much higher for Sunday than the previous days. This shows that we should have plenty of instability. Cloud base should be back over 4000', hopefully not producing rain. Winds will continue from the SE still at 10 knots and possibly a little higher in the afternoon. Same story with the onshore winds bringing plenty of moisture.

Kevin Roden

Weekend forecast

2010-03-11T07:49:00.000+10:00

This weekends weather will be influenced by a massive high pressure system moving to be centered over Tasmania for the weekend. The high will direct moist air onto the coast, and I think we all know what that means. The treasurer has asked for a sunny weekend but it appears he has little influence this weekend.

It is difficult to be optimistic with over 20mm in the last few hours and it still raining here (7am) on the Sunshine Coast. The Brisbane radar shows an area near Caboolture, and if you look closely probably Caboolture aerodrome, had up to or in excess of 50mm of rain Wednesday night. The weekends flying will depend on the extent and intensity of the coastal showers. Strong winds will be the other hurdle, however it is good experience to fly in stronger than normal winds.

Friday 12 March
Overcast 2000' cloudbase scattered showers
Winds over15 knots and increasing from the South East

Saturday 13th March
Increasing cloud 3500' or higher cloudbase with scattered showers. Winds 15 knots from the South East.

Sunday 14th March
Same as Saturday, with more cloud but slightly less less wind, still greater than 10 knots.
Assuming the rain showers stay away there could be some difficult lift around for those keen to go soaring.

Weekend starting Friday 19th February

2010-02-18T06:33:00.000+10:00

Last weekends weather appeared to have moved through our area a little faster than forecast meaning the Saturday pilots missed out on some of the good conditions experienced by the Friday Crew.
This weekend will be troubled with high humidity which will mean lots of cloud, some becoming a little heavy and hence delivering a little more precipitation. A high pressure system centering itself over the Tasman Sea will ensure plenty of onshore winds keeping the conditions similar each day.

Keep an eye on local forecasts as conditions can change depending on how the inland trough behaves. I am off today to go beach camping at Double Island Point for a few days. No doubt the bad weather will be up there with me so that should increase the chances of Caboolture having some fine weather.

FRIDAY
Strong South to South East winds and an overcast sky will greet the Friday crew. Conditions should improve through the morning with more sun in the afternoon. The atmosphere will be unstable with a cloudbase of over 3000' with a lot of overcast. 15 knot winds from the south east will ensure the lift will be difficult and broken.
Forecast top of 28°

SATURDAY
Very similar conditions to Friday. The forecast top temperature of 28° will have a lot of instability. The dry adiabatic lapse rate goes all the way to 6500' however the dew point will ensure there is a cloudbase around 3500' with a lot of overcast. Once again showers will be possible.

SUNDAY
Saturday's conditions will persist through Sunday with the winds persisting from the East greater than 10 knots with 15 knots being more the norm. The temperature sounding shows there is potential for some good lift with the dry adiabatic lapse rate from a ground air temperature of 28° once again going all the way to 6500' however the atmosphere is still very moist so the cloudbase will be down at 3500'. Watch out for any coastal showers.

Kevin Roden

Weekend starting Friday 12th February

2010-02-11T07:01:00.001+10:00

What a variation last weekend. On Sunday while the airfield was recieving it's drenching and even worce further South my rain gage, on the sunshine coast, only received 50mm for the whole weekend to Monday morning.
This weekend a high pressure system in the Tasman responsible for the onshore winds this week and their resultant showers will continue to influence our weather for the weekend as it slowly moves eastward. The winds will swing from a generally East direction early Friday to be North Westerly by Monday. This should mean generally better soaring conditions through the coming days.

FRIDAY.
RASP shows there will be some great lift, to a cloudbase over 5000' west of Caboolture. Near the airfield any lift will be difficult and broken with the sparse cumulus at 3500'.
Winds will be light from the East swinging to NE at 10 knots in the afternoon

SATURDAY
Cloud development should be far greater than what was present on Friday with cumulus growing to almost will the sky in the afternoon. Cloudbase will will increase to 4500' or higher and lift will be available to those able to seek it out. Winds will be generally Northerly for the day staying at around 10 knots. Saturday could be one of those days where lift is available for a large part of the day. Don't be put off if there is an early morning coastal shower.

SUNDAY
Very much like Saturdays forecast with potential lift to 4500' Sunday will start with more cloud coverage than Saturday but should be a good day also. Winds will be a little stronger Sunday starting off at 10 knots or a little less from the North and swinging to the NE to 15knots in the afternoon.

Have a good weekend.

Kevin

Weekend weather

2010-02-04T21:35:00.001+10:00

Easterly winds and an inland troughs will ensure we receive more rainfall this weekend.
Official forecasts have showers increasing Saturday with rain Sunday. Since I have a reputation of bring rain with me when normally rostered as instructor on Saturdays there is every chance I'll have rain with me this Sunday as duty instructor.

Friday should have cu's with a base somewhere near 3500'. Some good lift could be available to those who can seek the thermals out as the early overcast opens up after 10am. Wind should be generally around 10 knots from the East.

Saturday will be the pick of days for the weekend fliers. Interestingly RASP shows possibility of difficult thermals to a 3000' cloudbase from 9am but also shows showers after 12 noon. This will depend on the influence of cloud cover early in the day. Wind should be generally around 10 knots from the East. Saturday has potential for early morning scattered showers.

Sunday is forecast to be overcast with showers. Lets hope I am wrong. Wind should be generally around 10 knots from the East.

Kevin

Last Weekend for January 2010

2010-01-28T06:25:00.000+10:00

The great weather of the last few weeks is coming to an end this weekend.

FRIDAY
Friday may start overcast but should open up to a nice day by 10am. The atmosphere will be unstable with thunderstorms forecast, however they should be late in the afternoon. Soaring should be possible with good lift to a cloudbase in excess of 4500'. Part of the day could have blue thermals. The best lift will be from 10am and may become difficult to work from noon.

Max temp 32 winds generally less than 10 knots from the North.

Friday 10am

SATURDAY

TC Olga after decaying to a low pressure system will start to have a negative influence on our weather. Conditions will generally be overcast with a cloudbase around 3000'. Possibility of rain late in the afternoon.

Max temp. 29° winds generally 10 knots from the East

Saturday 10am

SUNDAY

Old TC Olga will be really upseting our weather now. Conditions will be overcast with a relativly low cloudbase with forecast light showers for the day.

Max temp. 28° winds to 15 knots from the East.

Sunday 10am

Australia Day Weekend

2010-01-22T06:14:00.001+10:00

This weekends weather will be influenced by TC Neville. The satillite image shows this system feeding a cloud band down over SE Queensland. So it will depend how this cyclone behaves.
Generally northerly winds over the next few days will keep the temperatures in the low 30's.

Friday.
There will be some high cloud which may affect ground heating. The temperature trace shows that there will be thermals to 4500' whith no cumulus to mark their position. The sea breeze may come through early.
31° with winds less than 10 knots from the NE.

Saturday
Some high cloud should still be present. Temperatures above 28° should provide some thermal activity. The forcast top of 31° will produce themals to the 4000' cloud base. The day should be a little better than Friday with the sea breeze coming through a little latter. Conditions could be similar to last Saturday with a inland trough possibly helping any instability.
Conditions should be the same as friday 31° with 10 knot max winds from the NE.

Sunday
Conditions similar to Friday and Saturday will be upset with a temperature inversion around 3000'. The forcast top of 31° will once again have themals however the inversion will keep a lid on their height and prevent any cumulus developoing.
Once again we should have 31° with NE winds.

Monday
Thermal activity will still be influenced by a temperature inversion. Themals may make it to 4000', mainly due to the higher forecast temperature. Once again there should be very few cumulus cloud.
32° NE winds

Tuesday.
Unless the cyclone has done something unexpected the forecast will be the same as Monday. NOAA showes a dryer atmosphere with lighter winds wich suggests a high pressure system will be influencing our weather. Thermals to 3500' no cumulus cloud.
Winds from the North to North west & a max temperature of 32°

Weekend starting Saturday 16th January

2010-01-14T21:36:00.000+10:00

Bit snowed under with work this week so haven't put too much effort into this weekends forecast. Looks like it should be a good weekend though.

An inland trough is forcast to stay west of the coast. However its influence will see the wind change from a pleasant 5 knot ESE breeze on Saturday morning to a gusty 15 knot wind from the NW on Sunday afternoon.

For Saturday RASP is predicting good lift to a 3500' cloudbase. If the seabreeze influence stays away the day should get better as it progresses. Winds should be light for most of the day.

Sunday has a ridge of low pressure pushing up over our area which will bring instability and potential storms. Cloudbase will be around 3500' and possibly higher. Winds starting at NW around 5 knots but pushing up to 15 knots during the day

Weekend starting Friday 8th January

2010-01-07T06:34:00.000+10:00

The official forcasts show that the overcast wet conditions should progressivly move north till Sunday which should see no signs of the current damp conditions. A large band of cloud over Queensland is threatening to stop the sun from shining.

A high pressure system should ridge up over Queensland from the Tasman which will push the cloud North. and keep the winds from a ESE direction. Unfortunately the Friday fliers may have to fight with scattered showers over their rite to rule the air. These showers may be present early Saturday morning also.

Last weekend showed that good conditions start early. This weekend should be no different (except for Friday and its forecast showers)

FRIDAY

The temperature sounding shows a temperature over 24° should have some instability. RASP forecasts any lift to be weak and difficult to work, most probably due to the wet ground. A damp atmosphere will produce a lot of cloud Cumulus with cloud base around 3000' and winds from the ESE around 10 knots.

SATURDAY

Conditions will improve greatly. Slight possibility of early morning coastal shower. If any are about they should clear early otherwise the area will be soarable by 10am . Like Friday cumulus cloud base will be 3000'. Forecast temperature of 28° will produce some good lift. Winds will be 10 knots from ESE the sea breeze should stay away till mid afternoon.

SUNDAY

More improvement in the general weather. Any lingering high cloud will have disappeared. The forecast temp trace shows a temperature above 25° to provide instability. The forecast top of 29° will have potential to give good thermals to the 4500' cloud base. Once again the sea breeze should stay away till mid afternoon. Winds again will be 10 knots from the SE.

New Year weekend weather

2009-12-31T08:35:00.001+10:00

The four day forecast chart does not inspire confidence in providing great soaring conditions. There is potential for some instability and hence soaring possibilities early each day. However overcast conditions will not inspire confidence. Flying will depend on how widespread and the locations of the coastal showers. If you do intend flying try arriving early and have the operation underway early. Sunday especially may deteriorate early.

Winds should be relatively light for the weekend from a northerly direction.

An early look at next week shows Friday 8th January to be a hot day with light winds with blue thermals to more than 3000'. Saturday to will be blue as well with light winds from the northwest, ideal for training flights. Sunday will have the winds increasing and shifting to the southeast bringing a cloud base of around 2000' and windier conditions

Saturday's temp trace 10am local time

Sunday's temp trace 10am local time

2009-11-26T00:09:00.000+10:00

Once again a cold front / trough system moving across Australia will have winds generally from the North over the weekend. The trough system is expected over Caboolture Saturday evening / Sunday morning. This means Saturday pilots can expect some unstable air in front of the trough.

Essentially a weekend very similar to last weekend and another warm weekend.

Friday November 27

Winds from the north swinging North East 10 knots, predicted max temperature 30°

Thermals should be present after 26° is reached. The predicted maximum of 30 should see lift to 6500' with a cloudbase of 6000' Those who have enjoyed the soaring over the past few weeks can expect the same untill the arrival of the afternoon sea breeze

Saturday November 28

Winds from the north 10-15 knots, predicted max temperature 32°

A warmer temperature of 28° will be required to start of useable thermals,and the predicted top of 32° will give cumulus at around 4000' Depending upon the arrival time of the trough Saturday should also be a good day

Sunday November 29

Winds from the north 10-15 knots, predicted max temperature 34°

As the atmosphere warms it requires greater temperatures to allow for thermals. 30° is the trigger temperature for Sunday. The predicted top of 34° will have lift going to 6500' with the same 6000' cloud base enjoyed by the Friday crew.

Weekend starting Friday 20th November

2009-11-19T07:35:00.001+10:00

A cold front / trough system moving across Australia will have winds generally from the North over the weekend. Wind strength will increase over the weekend also with Friday having a pleasant 10 knot max wind speed, Saturday providing a bit better than 10knots, Sunday having 10 knots early pushing up toward 20knts in the afternoon. Increasing temperatures over the weekend will make Friday the most pleasant day.

Potential for another good weekend if not a bit warm.

Friday November 20

Winds from the north 5 knots, predicted max temperature 30°

Thermals should be present after 26° is reached with 30° giving lift to above the 3500' airspace ceiling.

Blue day, no cumulus.

Potentially the lift will be better in the afternoon, depending upon when the sea breeze comes in.

Saturday November 21

Winds from the north 10 knots increasing to 15 knots from the North East by 4pm, predicted max temperature 30°

Thermals should be present after 26° is reached with 30° giving lift to above the 4500' cloud base.

High level cloud may increase during the day.

Sunday November 22

Winds from the north 10 knots increasing to greater than 15 knots from the North by 4pm, predicted max temperature 32°

Thermals should be present after 28° is reached with 32° giving lift to 6000' There will be very few cumulus only those with stronger / higher thermals will produce cloud.

High level cloud may increase during the day.

Sunday 15 Nov

2009-11-13T05:57:00.002+10:00

Sunday should be as good as last Saturday. A predicted top of 30° should give rise to plentiful thermals and nice cumulus clouds, especially with wind speeds still being quite low. Cloudbase could be around 3500' but I believe it should be a similar height to last weekend which seemed significantly more than the forecast 3000'. Winds should once again be less than 10 knots from the South swinging through to the East by mid to late afternoon.

Seems like this could be a good day for any pilots wanting to practice their thermalling, with or without a mentor.

Sunday sounding

Saturday 14 Nov

2009-11-13T05:54:00.001+10:00

Saturday

An upper level trough will show itself today with some possible showers.

The atmospheric sounding chart has changed! the dew point line has moved indicating a much higher cloudbase tan before. The potential for soaring is now greater but unfortunatly not the best Caboolture can offer. Winds will be less than 10 knots from the South swinging through to the East by late afternoon. The overcast skies I predicted yesterday should now give way to sunshine and fair weather cumulus clouds.

Since I am duty instructor there will be a competition organised for everyone who flys Saturday, trainees included.

Saturday sounding

Friday 13 Nov

2009-11-13T05:49:00.001+10:00

Friday

Light winds 5 knots from the S to SE, till the seabreeze arrives with 10 knots of wind from the East before 1pm.

A temperature inversion at 3000' will make thermals difficult to take much higher. A low dew point temperature will mean after 10am there will no cumulus cloud, though there should be some to the west near the ranges. Could be a thunderstorm out there too.

Friday's sounding